Thursday, March 06, 2003
Wednesday, March 05, 2003
At first glance, it seems like your chances of winning are equal no matter which door you pick. 50/50. In fact, you have a 2/3 chance of winning if you switch and a 1/3 chance if you stick. Let's walk through it. Assume the car is behind door number 1. If 1 is your initial choice, you'll win the car by sticking. If 2 or 3 is your initial choice, you'll win by switching. Get it? Okay, let's say you pick door number two. Which door will they open next? Door 3, because the prize is behind door 1 and you picked door 2. You will need to switch to win. What if you start with door 3? In that case, they will open door 2 and you still have to switch to win. Only if you pick door 1 will switching not result in a win. So, out of your original three choices, two of them result in a 'switch' to win, and one results in a 'stick' to win. Thus, 2/3 chance of winning if you switch. Do you get it now? If not, try it with a friend and see. I have talked to people who swear up and down it's a 50/50 shot. No matter how I try to explain it, they won't give in. If ever there was a sign of a closed mind, that is it. Great thing about this is it's not a matter of opinion. If somebody disagrees with you and claims it's 50/50, you know they're wrong.
Monday, March 03, 2003
With these shows, I can rest easy knowing that these people are a minority, and most adults would agree that the parents are to blame. On NBC the other day, I was confronted with the same phenomena in subtler form. Dateline did a segment on the problem of speeding through neighborhoods. They set up a news team with a bunch of police officers to pull over people who went 10 mph over the speed limit in a residential area. The show's host would then interview the culprit, berating them and asking snide questions like, "Are you afraid the grocery store will close if you don't get there fast enough?" (Like that asshole never speeds). So where I am I going with this? Well, the show's focus wasn't just speeding, but children who get hit by speeding cars. They interviewed a mother whose son died the previous year after getting hit by a car. She now leads some kind of group that encourages local police forces to clamp down on speeding. Now tell me this - if your child runs out onto the road and gets hit, whose fault is that? The child's? Not unless the child is old enough to know better. The driver's? You generally don't expect a kid to run out in front of you when you drive. It's clearly the parents' fault. Who picked the house right next to the busy street? Who let their son play near the street? Who obviously failed to teach her son not to run in front of cars? That same woman who wants to blame speeding, that's who.
Now, a driver who greatly exceeds the speed limit deserves some culpability as well. But honestly, who doesn't break these arbitrary speed limits from time to time? If the one time you speed you just happen to hit a child, did you just commit negligent homicide? That was essentially what the show claimed. They were only too happy to indulge this mother's fantasy - that she's not at all to blame for her son's death.
Oh yeah, and do you think the government that designed and built these unsafe roads will get any blame? Don't bet on it.